Episode 3
The first full show: the week on the farm, the desk, and what the Combine says happens next
b7053c84b3Episode 2
On its way.
Twenty-one tractors have arrived at the farm, the Scarecrow has made two Traitors with a tap on the bonnet, and Richard E Grain has already said the quiet part out loud in the bar. The Traitors invited two Faithfuls to the Barn: one came back a Traitor, the other did not come back. From the hay-bale desk, Jimmie and James go over all of it, then James goes out the back, turns the handle on the Combine, and reads out who it reckons gets banished at the next Round Bale and who gets scrapped after.
Who is banished at the Round Bale?
Is the banished tractor a Traitor?
Who do the Traitors scrap?
How united is the vote? (share for the top name)
Percentages are how often each outcome occurred across the runs. How to read them.
From the real farm to this forecast
The state
Everything known after episode 2 of the broadcast, written from the episodes by hand: who is on the farm, who is a Traitor, every event and who witnessed it.
The tractors
Each of the 21 tractors is its own AI expert, built from its namesake's interviews and told how it has played so far. Each is shown only the events it was present for.
The scene
The Round Bale is run: each tractor speaks and votes in turn, hearing the others. Then the Traitors' Barn: the Traitors alone decide who to scrap.
The tally
20 runs with different seeds. The share of runs in which each thing happened is the probability shown above.
95a8662e63908dfb, question set 7ce71e40fc121d63. scope_to_document_ids limits vector search only; keyword results are unscoped, which matters for backtests, not for a live prediction
Who the Combine was working with
How much each tractor had behind it at the moment of prediction. Recorded from the same game state. A tractor with only an hour or two is briefed from its raw transcripts. One with more has a full staged profile, with summaries and an emotional model. What the difference means.
| Tractor | Unscripted speech | Brief | Observed notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joanne Muck-Nally | 8.4 h | full profile | 1 |
| James Haycaster | 8.3 h | full profile | 4 |
| Romesh Rotavathan | 8.2 h | full profile | 2 |
| Hannah Furrow | 7.0 h | full profile | 3 |
| Rob Bucket | 6.6 h | full profile | 1 |
| King Kubota | 5.2 h | full profile | 2 |
| Richard E Grain | 1.9 h | transcripts | 4 |
| Michael Machine | 1.7 h | transcripts | 2 |
| James Blunt-Plough | 1.7 h | transcripts | 3 |
| Amol Reaper | 1.6 h | transcripts | 3 |
| Miranda Cart | 1.5 h | transcripts | 1 |
| Myhay'la | 1.5 h | transcripts | 1 |
| Ross Hemp | 1.4 h | transcripts | 4 |
| Joe Lie-cett | 1.4 h | transcripts | 3 |
| Baler Ramsey | 1.1 h | transcripts | 3 |
| Leigh-Anne Paddock | 1.1 h | transcripts | 2 |
| Haya Jama | 1.1 h | transcripts | 3 |
| Julie Hesmond-Hay | 1.1 h | transcripts | 3 |
| Sebastian Crop | 1.0 h | transcripts | 2 |
| Shearon Rooney | 0.7 h | transcripts | 1 |
| Jerry Haul | 0.3 h | transcripts | 2 |
What they said, run by run
Every line below except the italic narration came out of that tractor's AI expert. The private thoughts are what it was thinking, which nobody in the room heard. All 20 runs are here, including the ones that went a different way.